000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Celia is still struggling in a sheared environment. Some bursts of convection continue to pulse near the center of the weak depression, which remains exposed due to easterly shear. The initial intensity remains at 25 kt, mainly because there have been no new data to suggest otherwise. The initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt. The ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause the tropical depression to continue west-southwestward for the next day or so. Celia is then expected to be steered around the southwestern and western edge of a ridge centered over the southeast United States which should turn the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest beyond the 36 h forecast. The model track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one with a shift to the west at the end of the prediction period. The depression is being affected by strong upper-level winds, which are resulting in about 20 kt of shear. This shear is forecast to slowly abate in the next day or so which will possibly allow for some strengthening of Celia by the middle of the week. Celia could even become a hurricane by the end of the forecast period as the vertical wind shear decreases and other environmental factors remain favorable. The official forecast is close to the previous advisory and on the lower end of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 12.2N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.9N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 11.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 15.4N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake