Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 182045
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Small puffs of deep convection have been occuring off and on
primarily west of the small and shallow vortex of Celia
this afternoon. Earlier, I was fortunate to receive both
ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C passes over the small circulation, and
they revealed the wind field has spun down further, with peak-wind
retrievals of only 25 kt. This value also matches the latest
objective UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate. The
initial intensity this advisory is therefore being lowered to 25
kt.

After appearing to turn leftward earlier today, this afternoon Celia 
has either completely stalled or is drifting ever so slightly 
northward. Despite this temporary pause, the track guidance remains 
adamant that a more distinct westward motion will soon occur, with 
even some west-southwestward component of motion in the next 24-48 
hours as the mid-level ridge to the north takes over. However, its 
possible some of the guidance trackers are also picking up a center 
relocation into the persistent convection ongoing south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec and the present vortex is simply too shallow to feel 
the increasing easterly mid to upper-level flow currently. In any 
event, the track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the 
previous advisory, if just a touch slower than before. The NHC track 
is fairly close to the previous one, though does show a bit slower 
motion the first 12-24 hours due to the initial hesitation in Celia 
today. This track lies near the reliable consensus aids.

It is quite clear easterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt 
Celia's convective structure. With the majority of the deep 
convection occuring outside of the storm's radius of maximum wind, 
this convection is likely doing more harm than good to the small 
vortex. While the intensity forecast continues to show little change 
in strength over the next 36 hours, it remains possible that Celia 
could briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further 
west closer to more widespread convection. The shear is still 
expected to decrease as sea-surface temperatures warm after 60 
hours, and assuming Celia is still a coherent system at that time, 
intensification remains possible. The intensity forecast for early 
next week is identical to this morning and is still very close to 
the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track 
across portions of far southern Mexico and Guatemala through Sunday. 
This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and 
mudslides across the region.

2. Even though Celia remains fairly close to the coast of El 
Salvador and Guatemala, its wind field is small and weak and direct 
wind impacts are not anticipated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 13.0N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 12.8N  91.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 12.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 12.1N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 11.9N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 12.0N  98.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 12.5N 100.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 13.7N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



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