Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181439
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight 
satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of 
convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, 
this activity does not have much organization and already appears 
to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the 
system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB 
and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT 
and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity 
will remain 30 kt for this advisory.

Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the 
motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia 
should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer 
steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward 
motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a 
more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more 
northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a 
touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is 
changed little from the previous forecast.

Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue 
affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary 
reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, 
and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or 
reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity 
should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is 
forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity 
to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of 
the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus 
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to 
decrease.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 12.8N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.8N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 12.5N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 12.1N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 12.0N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 12.2N  97.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 12.5N  99.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



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