Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion

WTPZ43 KNHC 280840

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Celia's convective organization has been gradually decaying 
overnight, and only a few small cells with cloud-top temperatures 
below -60 C remain near the center. Subjective satellite estimates 
are gradually decreasing, and the latest objective satellite 
estimate from ADT is down to T2.0/30 kt. Assuming the wind-field has 
spun-down further from the earlier scatterometer-derived wind 
values, Celia is downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 
30 kt.

The cyclone's motion remains west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The 
low- to mid-level steering should keep Celia on this same general 
track for the next several days. This track brings Celia over even 
cooler waters into a more stable environment, and if more organized 
convection does not soon return over Celia's vortex, it is likely to 
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The latest NHC track and 
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, 
though the system is now made a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h, 
with the remnant low opening up into a trough by Thursday.


INIT  28/0900Z 21.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Papin

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