846 WTPZ43 KNHC 210845 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Celia has changed little in organization during the past several hours. Strong northeasterly shear has been affecting the depression, with the center of the cyclone near the sharp northeastern edge of a rather shapeless area of very strong convection. The system lacks well-defined banding features at this time, and Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Based on the SHIPS model output, Celia should continue to be in an environment of moderate, but significant, vertical shear for the next day or two followed by a notable decrease of shear in 48 hours. The official intensity forecast calls for only slow strengthening in the early part of the period followed by a slightly faster rate of intensification for a while thereafter. In 3-5 days, however, cooler SSTs should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus for the earlier part of the period and a little above it later on. This is about the same as in the previous NHC forecast. Celia has been moving slightly south of west, or about 265/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from a high centered near the southern U.S. Plains should remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Celia should move on a generally west-northwestward track on the southwest side of the ridge for most of the forecast period. Although the steering pattern seems relatively straightforward, there are noticeable differences in the track forecasts from some of the more reliable models. As noted earlier, this could partially be due to differences in the cyclone vortex depths in these models. The official track forecast is only slightly south of the previous one, and follows the corrected multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 11.6N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch