000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210253 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The depression has become better organized based on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The center is embedded in the eastern side of a growing area of deep convection. However, subjective satellite estimates still support an intensity at 30 kt and therefore, the initial intensity is set to that value. Despite moderate east-northeasterly shear, the depression is expected to gradually re-strengthen in the next day or so. Celia will likely continue to intensify in the following few days, in part due to the cyclone moving over warm waters in a low-or-moderate shear environment. At the end of the forecast period, intensification will likely halt as the storm encounters cooler waters. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and represents a compromise between the higher dynamical hurricane models and lower global model intensities. Celia continues westward (270/11 kt) due to the steering flow of a mid-level ridge to its north, and this motion should persist for another day or so. The system is expected to turn west-northwest and eventually northwestward as it rounds the southwest side of the ridge. There is a fair bit of model disagreement this cycle in both cross-track and along-track storm positions. This is possibly due to a wide variety of forecast model tropical cyclone vortex depths which experience very different environmental steering flows. The NHC track forecast lies to the north of the consensus aids, a little closer to the global models, and is slightly faster than the previous forecast. The large spread in model guidance makes this track forecast more uncertain than average. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 11.9N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake