000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200843 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 There have been a few small bursts of deep convection near the estimated center of Celia, but easterly shear continues to prevent significant organization of the thunderstorm activity. The current intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Unfortunately a recent scatterometer pass, which could have given additional information on the strength of the system, missed the circulation of the cyclone. The global models indicate that the persistent easterly shear over Celia, associated with an upper-level anticyclone over southeastern Mexico, should gradually diminish as the tropical cyclone moves farther west. This should allow for some strengthening to commence within the next day or so. The official forecast shows gradual intensification beginning at 24 hours and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus, IVCN, for the 5-day forecast period. Celia's center slipped a little south of the previous track but the best estimate of initial motion is west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt. A large zonally-oriented subtropical ridge is expected to prevail to the north of Celia for the next several days. This should induce a westward and then west-northwestward track over the period. The official track forecast is similar to the model consensus and not far from the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 11.9N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 11.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 11.8N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 12.1N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch