2024-07-05 04:36:53
1720168657
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050836 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Data from the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers, which both provided a good sampling of Aletta's circulation, revealed that the system no longer had tropical-storm-force winds. The scatterometer data also showed that the center of the tropical cyclone is displaced to the west of the remaining area of deep convection, presumably due to easterly vertical wind shear. Accordingly, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this advisory. During the next day or two, Aletta should be under the influence of increasingly dry air with continued moderate shear, while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. Therefore the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours, and dissipate soon thereafter. This is similar to the previous official intensity forecast. Aletta is turning to the left with an initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt. The weakening cyclone should turn westward to west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch