2024-07-05 10:42:56
1720190661
102 WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Multiple microwave images between 08 and 12 UTC indicated that Aletta still has a well-defined center, and it has continued to produce a small area of deep convection near that center. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from around 25 to 35 kt, so the estimated maximum winds are still 30 kt for this advisory. Aletta is moving westward (270/10kt) and a west-southwestward turn is expected later this morning. The small depression is located in a marginal environment, and a combination of decreasing SSTs below 26 deg C, drier surrounding air, and increasing shear should cause Aletta to lose its deep convection later today. In fact, all dynamical guidance suggests that Aletta will become a remnant low within the next 6 to 18 h. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Aletta as a tropical cyclone on the longer side of that range, but still shows gradual weakening through the forecast period. After it becomes a remnant low, Aletta is expected to turn back toward the west and dissipate within another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky