Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties
FXUS62 KTBW 261838
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon
with a trough swinging through the northeast U.S. and surface high
pressure extending across the peninsula. Overall light wind flow
today will lead to additional convection developing along the sea
breeze boundary collision over the interior and then slowly drifting
back westward through the rest of the evening.
For Saturday and Sunday, high pressure aloft shifts west as
troughing moves over the Atlantic. A surface boundary will move into
northern Florida, pushing the Atlantic ridge axis farther south. A
bit of a complicated setup, but add in higher moisture and we should
see increased storm activity both days.
Global models continue to indicate troughing continuing over the
state into early next week with a relatively weak surface pattern.
Higher moisture is also forecast to remain and all of this supports
a forecast of continued higher rain chances, with storms dominated
by sea breeze and outflow boundaries due to the lack of steering
flow. The Atlantic ridge axis then builds back in for Wednesday
through the end of the week, with a southeast flow pattern
returning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Thunderstorms will be possible for all sites through the rest of the
day, likely lingering after 00Z. No concerns overnight, then another
round of storms is expected tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly light southeast to south winds will continue through the
weekend with a turn onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. No headlines are expected, though scattered thunderstorms
are possible each day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 91 78 92 / 40 70 40 70
FMY 77 94 78 94 / 50 60 20 60
GIF 76 95 76 94 / 50 70 30 70
SRQ 77 93 77 93 / 40 70 40 70
BKV 74 94 74 93 / 40 70 40 70
SPG 81 92 81 93 / 40 70 50 70
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
05/Carlisle