Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties
FXUS62 KTBW 071750
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
150 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
A large trough axis extends from the Great Lakes Region down through
the Mid-Atlantic and off the East Coast of Florida. Stretched out
behind this low, a stationary boundary is situated across North
Florida, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Northern
Gulf through the Big Bend region of Florida. Weak high pressure is
dominating south of this boundary, with a light WSW flow in place
the surface.
The sea breeze is only just beginning to develop, with enough
moisture and instability in place to support some convection.
However, there is a decreasing moisture gradient, especially over
the Eastern Gulf and adjacent central Florida coast. Water vapor
satellite imagery also shows a pocket of drier air to the south,
which is being advected to the NE towards the FL peninsula in
response to the SW flow. Overall, this setup favors lower rain
chances for this afternoon and evening along the coast; but the
boundary collisions and moisture pooling across the interior should
still yield scattered to numerous storms, mainly across Polk,
Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands counties. SWFL is also favored for
higher rain chances as the slightly more SE low-level flow should
keep additional moisture in play, mainly across the eastern half
of Charlotte and Lee Counties.
As the parent low lifts northward, the subtropical ridge will build
back in and the flow will return to the more prevalent ESE flow that
has persisted for much of the last couple months. However, the
stationary boundary, as the name implies, will persist. By the
middle of the week, it looks to sink a little further south to
around the Bay Area. Should this be realized, the deep moisture axis
will be directly overhead, with widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, and elevated concerns for heavy rainfall to lead to
flooding.
Regardless of the exact specifics, today and tomorrow are favored to
be the driest days, although far from completely dry. At least
scattered storms will persist each day, with warm and muggy weather
typical of a summertime pattern continuing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Convection is beginning to develop in the vicinity of terminals this
afternoon, and will remain possible for the next few hours before
the bulk of the activity transitions inland and eventually
dissipates late. As the flow slowly returns to a more easterly
direction over the next couple days, the likelihood of impacts for
coastal terminals will increase during the afternoon hours
especially each day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
With a stalled boundary over northern coastal waters, showers and
thunderstorms persist. Locally hazardous winds and seas are possible
in the vicinity. South of this boundary in central and southern
waters, a light SSW wind of 5 to 10 knots persists, with seas of 1
to 3 feet. Tomorrow and into the weekend, this flow turns back to
the ESE, with an expected shift in timing for thunderstorms by early
next week to be favored in the afternoon and evening as opposed to
the morning. As the boundary sinks farther south through the week,
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity becomes likely at
anytime.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Conditions are forecast to be driest today and tomorrow, but
isolated to scattered storms remain possible along the coast and
scattered to numerous storms remain possible inland. With ample
moisture, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 90 76 90 / 20 70 30 70
FMY 78 93 77 92 / 30 50 20 70
GIF 77 92 77 92 / 30 70 10 70
SRQ 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 30 60
BKV 73 89 74 90 / 20 70 30 70
SPG 80 91 79 92 / 20 60 30 60
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery