Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.
FXUS62 KTBW 150003
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
703 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move through this evening, bringing cooler
and drier conditions for the start of the work week.
- Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight and Monday.
&&
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
A cold front currently over north central Florida will push across
the Florida peninsula tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will
advect much colder drier air over west central and southwest
Florida in the wake of the front tonight and Monday. Considerable
cloudiness will develop late tonight which will persist into
Monday across central and southern areas...while skies are
expected to clear across the northern nature coast. This will
allow temps across the northern forecast area to drop into the mid
30s tonight, with a few spots mainly in northern Levy county
possibly touching 32 degrees for a very brief time around sunrise.
Although abundant sunshine is likely over the northern nature
coast on Monday, high temperatures will only climb into the upper
50s to lower 60s. Considerable cloudiness is expected central and
south and combined with the breezy conditions will make it feel
even cooler...with high temperatures in the 60s central and the
lower 70s south.
The breezy conditions over the coastal waters will create a high
risk of rip currents along area beaches on Monday along with
hazardous boating conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
Broad troughing remains across the eastern part of the country this
afternoon while a surface frontal boundary approaches north Florida.
This boundary will cross over the region later today, with gusty
north to northeast winds taking hold as strong high pressure builds
over the southeast. This will usher a cooler and drier air mass over
the state, with low temperatures on Monday nearing freezing for
parts of Levy County and 40s and 50s elsewhere. Additionally, the
gusty winds will remain tonight, so wind chill values will be
several degrees lower. The rest of the day will be pleasant but
cool, with highs topping out in the upper 50s north to lower 70s
south.
High pressure will quickly shift eastward, allowing winds to turn
more easterly and bringing a warming trend through most of next
week. Rain chances remain low overall, with the next chance coming
next Friday into Saturday as another frontal boundary moves over the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
VFR conditions at all airports this evening. Gusty north to
northwest winds will develop at all terminals overnight...becoming
northeast on Monday. Mostly clear skies will persist until shortly
after midnight. Areas of VFR CIGs around 035 will develop at
TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ late tonight...which will spread across southern
terminals around sunrise to early Monday morning. LCL MVFR CIGs
020-030 will also be possible, mainly during the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting this afternoon/evening
and continuing through midday Monday as winds increase out of the
north to northeast following a cold front. Conditions will start to
improve Monday afternoon and no other headlines are expected Tuesday
through the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
A cold front will move through the region later today and tonight,
bringing cooler and drier air over the region for the next couple of
days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels,
however, so there are no Red Flag concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 51 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 56 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 51 66 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 52 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 41 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 54 67 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters
from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana