Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.
FXUS62 KTBW 190003
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
703 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing temperatures tonight into Monday morning from around
I-4 northward, with dangerous feels like temperatures areawide.
- Hazardous marine conditions continuing into the middle of the
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
Early evening IR and water vapor satellite imagery are showing
drier air and clear skies filling into northern Florida in the
wake of the cold front that is now pushing through southern
Florida, while layers of stratus that are still covering much of
the forecast area gradually push south. Along and just behind the
front, strong and gusty winds were felt across the forecast area
today, but automated surface observations are showing that these
winds have now significantly calmed down. However, winds overnight
are still strong enough to continue the cold air advection that
started with the frontal passage earlier today, with temperatures
still on track to drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s over the
interior by Monday morning, and upper 30s to low 40s along the
coast. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire
area tonight, with a Freeze Warning in effect for Polk County and
interior portions of Hillsborough and Pasco counties northward.
The forecast looks on track overall, and no significant changes
are planned for the evening update.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
Some MVFR ceilings are lingering behind the recent frontal
passage, and could impact area terminals through around midnight.
After that, clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to fill in
and hold through Monday as north winds subside.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
Small Craft Advisory conditions will gradually end from north to
south tonight into early Monday, but a tight pressure gradient
will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels, possibly Advisory
levels at times, through midweek. Another chance of rain arrives
Thursday as another frontal system moves across the waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 38 60 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 39 65 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 35 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 39 60 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 29 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 45 60 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday
for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland
Pasco-Polk-Sumter.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE...Close