Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.
FXUS62 KTBW 290041 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 841 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patches of low visibility are forecast again tomorrow morning across the Nature Coast as patchy fog develops. Use caution on the roads. - A strong cold front arrives tomorrow evening. The coldest weather since March/April will accompany this system. There is a 20% chance of showers with the passage of this front. - A period of hazardous marine conditions is forecast for Wednesday night into Friday as winds increase behind the front. Seas of up to 8 feet offshore are forecast, with bay and inland waterways remaining choppy to rough. Small craft should remain in port during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Latest Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows an extensive stratus deck across the northern Florida and the Nature Coast as a subsidence inversion continues to trap low level moisture. This stratus deck should move a bit further southward with it possibly reaching the Tampa Bay area overnight with areas of patchy fog also possible across the Nature Coast. Otherwise, lows will be cooler than last night with 50s across the Nature Coast and low/mid 60s for the remainder of the area with no changes planned this evening as the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front is slowly pushing through SWFL this afternoon in association with a developing mid-latitude cyclone just off the coast of the Carolinas. As this storm system moves further way, a slightly more mild northerly flow is advecting low clouds across North Florida. These gradually erode further to the south where greater instability exists due to the warmer temperatures and for limited cloud cover. The next 24 hours look fairly quiet. The main weather impact is for another round of fog and low clouds mainly to the north of Tampa Bay. Elsewhere, there is really no major weather concerns in play. However, the next frontal boundary will approach tomorrow evening, leading to significant changes in our weather. As a retrograding low weakens a ridge over Southern Canada, a trough axis will dig into the southeast and Northern Gulf Coast region. In association with this trough, a strong cold front will push the coldest airmass into our region since the late March/early April time-frame. With Major Hurricane Melissa passing to the east of Florida and surface high pressure tries to build in from the west, a strong pressure gradient will set up over the state, leading to a period of gusty winds beginning late Wednesday and lasting into Friday. While this could blow unsecured objects, the greater impact will be hazardous marine conditions across coastal waters. Over land, the more noticeable change will of course be the temperatures. The coldest morning looks to be on Friday as it will take time for the coldest air to filter in and gusty winds will pull in and mix any residual warmer air aloft towards the surface. As winds subside Thursday night, the setup is favorable for efficient radiational cooling. Thus, Friday morning lows will dip into the low 40s to mid 50s. Starting on Saturday and continuing into Sunday, the ridge axis will slide farther east, allowing the low-level flow to back to the east and eventually SE. This will allow a warmer and more humid airmass to advect back in late in the weekend and early next week. There are notable differences in the potential setup for the early part of next week. However, the basic synoptic pattern is fairly clear: the next front will be on our doorstep. Whether this boundary passes with little fanfare or leads to a period of stormy weather is not super clear yet. However, the forecast is gradually trending towards higher rain chances and more clouds. For now at least, one can look forward to the very nice change in weather that will be taking place over the next day or so. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Some patchy fog and/or areas of low stratus could develop overnight across portions of the area with highest chances expected at interior terminals. Any fog or low clouds that develop overnight will lift around 14Z Wednesday with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through the remainder of the day. However, a thin line of SHRA will approach the Tampa Bay area terminals by Wednesday evening with a brief period of VSBY restrictions possible at the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Light northerly winds favor seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through tomorrow. Another cold front approaches tomorrow night and will bring a quick-passing line of showers and considerably stronger winds behind its passage. These winds will cause seas to increase to as much as 8 feet offshore, with Bay and Inland waters becoming choppy to rough. These conditions will be hazardous for small craft. Gradual improvement will take place on Friday and into the weekend before the next system approaches early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 No major fire weather concerns through tomorrow as light winds and ample moisture keep fire danger low. A quick-passing line of showers is forecast tomorrow night as another cold front moves through. Behind this front, gusty winds and a significantly colder and drier airmass is forecast to move across the region. This will yield higher dispersions and lower RH values. However, red flag conditions do not look to be met at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 64 81 64 75 / 0 10 20 0 FMY 67 83 67 79 / 0 0 20 0 GIF 62 83 59 76 / 0 0 20 0 SRQ 64 80 66 76 / 0 10 20 0 BKV 55 80 56 72 / 0 10 20 0 SPG 66 78 66 73 / 0 10 20 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle