Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.
FXUS62 KTBW 071824
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...
The setup over Florida this afternoon features ridging with westerly
flow aloft and surface high pressure over the Atlantic extending
across the peninsula with generally light low-level southeast winds
in place. Similar to the last couple of days, these next few
afternoons will feature increasing shower and storm activity as the
sea breeze pushes inland each afternoon. The environment will remain
supportive of some stronger wind gusts along with small hail today,
then temperatures aloft decrease a degree or so for Thursday,
increasing the chances for larger hail.
For the end of the week and the weekend, an upper-level low will cut
off and linger along the northern Gulf coast/deep south region, with
west/southwest flow aloft advecting additional moisture across the
state. A surface reflection will also develop over the Gulf this
weekend, helping to enhance convection across the state through
Monday as these features slowly shift northeastward. This event will
give us our best chance to hopefully alleviate some of the ongoing
drought, though we could also be looking at flooding concerns,
depending on how everything evolves. WPC does keep the northern two-
thirds of the peninsula within a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for both Saturday and Sunday, so we will have to see how
the forecast plays out over the next few days to better evaluate
flood potential through early next week. Models do show some
relatively drier air working in for the middle part of next week,
which would signal a decrease in rain chances (again, relatively
speaking).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue this afternoon, with some showers and storms
starting to pop up along the sea breeze. The thinking for the rest
of the afternoon remains the same, with most storm activity expected
near KLAL before diminishing around or a bit after 00Z. A quiet
overnight period is expected then additional showers or storms will
form along the sea breeze before 18Z tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Southeast winds will become onshore each afternoon with the sea
breeze, but remain below headlines for the next several days. For
this weekend into next week, a low pressure system will move over
the northern Gulf, bringing increasing rain chances along with
locally higher winds and seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample moisture will remain over the region for the next several days
with no fire weather concerns. No significant fog is expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 90 75 89 / 20 50 30 50
FMY 73 91 73 91 / 20 20 20 40
GIF 72 93 71 91 / 30 70 40 70
SRQ 73 88 72 87 / 20 30 30 40
BKV 67 91 66 89 / 20 60 30 60
SPG 76 87 75 86 / 20 40 30 50
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Carlisle