Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 032032
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, 
thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty.  Therefore, 
Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now.  The 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier 
scatterometer data.  However, strong vertical wind shear, dry 
mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken 
Patty during the next couple of days.  No changes have been made to 
the latest NHC intensity forecast. 

The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move 
eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days.  Patty 
is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe, 
and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track 
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 37.3N  22.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 37.7N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  04/1800Z 38.9N  14.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 40.2N  11.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 41.2N   8.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci