Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

The center of Patty passed south of Terceira Island early this 
morning and is now approaching Sao Miguel Island in the southeastern 
Azores. Satellite images reveal the convective structure of the 
storm has degraded, with warming cloud tops and limited convection 
that has become displaced to the north and east of the center. Based 
on these trends and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the 
intensity of Patty is lowered to 45 kt. The strongest winds are 
likely occurring to the south and southwest of the center. 
Scatterometer passes expected later this morning should provide more 
clarity on the storm's wind structure and current intensity.

Patty is moving quickly eastward (090/16 kt) within mid-latitude 
westerlies over the northeastern Atlantic. A turn toward the 
east-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, in good agreement 
with the tightly clustered track guidance. No major changes were 
made to the updated NHC track forecast. The storm is already showing 
ill effects from westerly shear and dry air on its west side, and 
the environmental conditions are not expected to improve during the 
next couple of days. Therefore more weakening is anticipated, and 
Patty could lose organized convection and degenerate to a 
post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday. Then, the global 
models indicate the low should gradually fill and eventually open 
into a trough by midweek near the coast of Portugal.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Azores
today, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through early
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 37.9N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 37.7N  22.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 38.1N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  04/1800Z 39.4N  14.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/0600Z 40.9N  10.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 42.1N   8.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart