US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 990

   Mesoscale Discussion 0990
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Southern MO...Northwest/North-Central AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...320...

   Valid 262247Z - 270015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319, 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards,
   including tornadoes, very large hail up to 3" in diameter, and
   strong gusts up to 70 mph, will persist from central Missouri into
   northwest/north-central AR.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within the open warm
   sector across southern MO and northwest AR, ahead of the line of
   storms along the cold front approaching for the northwest. The
   triplet of supercells in south-central MO (i.e. Texas, Shannon, and
   Howell Counties) have all shown a notable increase in updraft
   intensity over the past half hour, with echo tops now over 50 kft in
   each storm. Another supercell has developed quickly just ahead of
   the primary line of storms across Pulaski and Phelps Counties.

   The easternmost two storms also are likely undergoing the splitting
   process, suggesting some additional strengthening and maturation is
   possible once this process completes. The downstream airmass is very
   unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating over 3500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. Vertical shear is strong as well, with mesoanalysis
   estimating effective bulk shear around 50 kt. Low-level flow is
   somewhat veered, but strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE
   over 150 J/kg) should still be more than sufficient for stretching
   and potential tornadogenesis. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter
   and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible in addition to tornadoes.

   The lone supercell along the far western MO/AR border continues to
   maintain its intensity, although it may now be trending towards a
   more outflow-dominant structure. However, given the strong buoyancy
   and robust vertical shear, some additional reorganizing is possible,
   with an attendant threat for tornadoes once this reorganization
   occurs. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to
   70 mph remain possible with this storm as well.

   ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37849067 36999036 36049193 35909318 36219433 37759224

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