Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 988

   Mesoscale Discussion 0988
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northeast GA...upstate SC

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...

   Valid 262235Z - 270000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will persist into
   the evening. New watch issuance is expected shortly.

   DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed from southwest NC into
   upstate SC, within a moderately unstable environment. The GSP VWP
   depicts rather strong mid/upper-level flow, and 40+ kt of effective
   shear, which is sufficient to maintain supercells. While midlevel
   lapse rates are not particularly strong, the moderate instability
   and favorable storm mode will support a hail threat with the
   strongest cells. The supercell storm mode could also support a brief
   tornado threat, even though low-level shear/SRH is not particularly
   strong. Steep low-level lapse rates resulting from earlier strong
   diurnal heating will support damaging-wind potential, especially if
   any sort of clustering or modest upscale growth of ongoing
   convection can occur. 

   With the threat expected to extend southward of WW 317, new watch
   issuance is expected shortly.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   36378312 36448208 35418093 34688068 34078144 33968227
               34098284 34258320 34688378 35448384 35858360 36378312