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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 987

Mesoscale Discussion 987
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0987
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Western/Middle TN...Far North-Central MS...Far
   Southwest KY

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

   Valid 262218Z - 262345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across western Tennessee is
   possible, with storms capable of very large hail up to 3" in
   diameter and tornadoes. Anything that develops may move into middle
   Tennessee, so trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
   across this region.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown increasing
   vertical depth within the cumulus field over western TN. The airmass
   in this region is moderately to strong buoyant, with recent
   mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE ranging from 3500 J/kg near the MS
   River to 1500 J/kg across middle TN. This area is currently
   displaced south and east of the stronger ascent, but there could
   still be enough low-level convergence to support convective
   initiation, particularly if convective attempts occur in close
   proximity to one another.  

   Vertical shear across the region is also very strong and the
   resulting environment is capable of supporting supercells capable of
   all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" in diameter
   and tornadoes. A portion of this region is in Tornado Watch 320, but
   trends will need to be monitored closely to ensure that areas across
   middle TN are covered if trends merit.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35718967 36558920 36788837 36578745 35728758 35038801
               34598908 34948974 35718967 

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