US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 983

   Mesoscale Discussion 0983
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wisconsin into Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262026Z - 262200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat exists, including the
   potential for a tornado or a couple bouts of strong wind gusts/hail.
   Given the isolated and brief nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring within the warm sector
   ahead of the surface low along the WI/IL border, with diurnal
   heating supporting temperatures approaching the 70 F mark amid mid
   60s F dewpoints. Ahead of a surface trough, where SBCAPE is
   exceeding 1000 J/kg, surface wind remain backed, with substantial
   veering and strengthening of the low-level wind field contributing
   to elongated and curved hodographs. 20Z mesoanalysis show over 200
   m2/s2 effective SRH in place. As such, any storm that can develop
   ahead of the surface trough axis before surface winds veer may pose
   a brief tornado threat, along with strong wind gusts and some hail.
   Confidence in this conditional scenario is not overly high,
   precluding a WW issuance at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41588919 42598920 43068869 43098821 42718780 42228768
               41768790 41488857 41588919 

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