Mesoscale Discussion 0980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into
far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri
Bootheel and surrounding areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261938Z - 262215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for
later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very
large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop
across the region.
DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass
recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are
developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture.
This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St.
Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface
observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints
spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of
the old/dissipating outflow boundary.
A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse
rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850
mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where
lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast
soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as
well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this
evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize.
As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the
developing situation.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37859215 38399163 38309039 38178966 37718877 36688826
35708839 36229169 36789229 37859215