US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 980

   Mesoscale Discussion 0980
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into
   far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri
   Bootheel and surrounding areas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 261938Z - 262215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for
   later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very
   large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop
   across the region.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass
   recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are
   developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture.
   This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St.
   Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface
   observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints
   spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of
   the old/dissipating outflow boundary. 

   A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse
   rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850
   mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where
   lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast
   soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as
   well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this
   evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize.

   As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the
   developing situation.

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37859215 38399163 38309039 38178966 37718877 36688826
               35708839 36229169 36789229 37859215 

Source link