Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 977

   Mesoscale Discussion 0977
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261836Z - 262100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
   develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
   tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
   is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
   moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
   plume over eastern OK. 

   Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
   surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
   instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
   hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
   east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36569329 36489445 36659525 36939540 37299531 37609514
               37859493 38159446 38409307 38249250 37889215 37489210
               36969241 36799274 36569329