US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 976

Published Date and Time: 2026-06-03 21:40:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 0976
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern SD into west-central/southwest MN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

   Valid 040137Z - 040300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for hail, damaging wind, and possibly a
   tornado may continue through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing
   severe gusts across far northeast SD is approaching the SD/ND/MN
   border intersection as of 0130 UTC. Low-level moisture and buoyancy
   weaken with eastward extent, which will tend to limit the longevity
   of the severe threat with this cluster into west-central MN.
   However, given the current organization of this cluster, some threat
   for damaging wind and isolated hail could spread east of WW 271
   before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Given the expected
   weakening trend with time, the need for downstream watch issuance is
   uncertain.  

   Farther south, relatively disorganized convection is ongoing across
   east-central SD. The environment across this area remains somewhat
   favorable, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear
   for organized convection. The ongoing convection could produce
   sporadic hail and isolated strong/damaging gusts. It remains
   possible that a supercell or two could evolve across this area
   through dusk, which would result in an increasing hail threat, along
   with some tornado potential.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44799775 46009719 46189673 46249620 46209568 45649563
               45139564 44689573 44469600 44389617 44269648 44189712
               44229753 44799775 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN



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