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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 974

Mesoscale Discussion 974
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0974
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...northern and middle Tennessee into central Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

   Valid 261652Z - 261815Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315, both
   with a bow echo across eastern KY into northern TN, and with another
   round of storms approaching from the west. Damaging gusts are
   possible with both lines of storms, and QLCS tornadoes cannot be
   ruled out with storms interacting with a pristine airmass.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are currently
   progressing across the TN Valley area. The first is a longer-lived
   QLCS with a history of damaging gusts (some severe) that is
   currently moving across eastern KY and far northern TN. The second
   is an intensifying line of storms trailing the previous QLCS in an
   overturned airmass. The first QLCS should continue to progress
   eastward with a damaging gust threat for at least a couple more
   hours. With the line oriented roughly perpendicular to the
   deep-layer shear vectors, a QLCS tornado remains possible.

   The second line of storms to the west is traversing a stable airmass
   and is currently ingesting elevated but buoyant air parcels given
   appreciable 850 mb WAA. However, southern portions of this line may
   cross the cold pool boundary of the previous QLCS into
   surface-based, buoyant air, characterized by surface temperatures
   and dewpoints into the low 80s F/70sF (respectively). In this
   environment, MLCAPE increases to 2000 J/kg amid 60+ kts of effective
   bulk shear. As such, damaging gusts and perhaps a brief QLCS tornado
   could accompany portion of this line that can ingest surface-based

   ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36928809 37358588 37988463 38058399 37338369 36508366
               35778399 35538494 35438636 35468737 35588795 36078857

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