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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 962

Mesoscale Discussion 962
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0962
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...311...

   Valid 260241Z - 260445Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 311 continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an MCS appears to be ongoing across
   northeast Kansas. Consequently, the wind threat should gradually
   increase in the coming hours downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth appears to be occurring across
   northeast KS with KGID and KTWX reflectivity and velocity data
   suggesting that cold pool consolidation is underway. A more notable
   wind surge is noted in on the northern periphery of the line across
   Washington county, which may be the development of an MCV-like
   feature that will act to better organize the developing MCS (though
   embedded supercells will remain possible on the southwestern flank
   of the line). VWP observations from KTWX show southerly winds in the
   lowest kilometer increasing to 50 knots over the past hour, which
   will will enhance convergence on the southern flank of the cold
   pool. Additionally, a moisture/buoyancy axis is noted in recent
   objective analyses across eastern KS into western/central MO. Based
   on these observations, the expectation is for the MCS to begin
   propagating to the east/southeast over the coming hours with an
   attendant increase in severe wind potential. Given the strong
   low-level SRH (0-1 km SRH near 500 m2/s2 per KTWX VWP), embedded
   circulations appear possible.

   ..Moore.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39599856 39789837 40219664 40249582 40159504 39739425
               39329388 39029389 38609417 38369442 38259490 38269549
               38389600 38579655 39199823 39399851 39599856 

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