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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 960

Mesoscale Discussion 960
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0960
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0819 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast
   KS...North-Central/Northeast OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...

   Valid 260119Z - 260245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards will persist for the next
   several hours into more of southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma,
   and eventually into portions of southwest Missouri and far northwest
   Arkansas. A downstream watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is in process across
   south-central KS and north-central OK as numerous left-splits and
   associated outflow interacts with a previously semi-discrete
   supercell. New development is also occurring along outflow from
   northeast Major County through southern Garfield County and
   advecting into the region, adding to the storm interactions and
   overall complexity of the mesoscale environment. Some forward
   propagation has been noted within the southernmost portion of the
   area (i.e. Noble County), which seemingly suggests some upscale
   growth could be occurring. However, a similar surge has not been
   noted farther north thus far, with larger-scale organization still

   Strong buoyancy and robust deep-layer shear remain in place,
   suggesting that some reorganization is possible over time, with the
   severe threat extending into southeast KS and northwest OK, and
   eventually into adjacent portions of southwest MO and far northwest

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37339841 37779670 37559407 35779434 35869670 36199833

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