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Mesoscale Discussion 958 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0958 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...Northwest OK...South-Central KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 308... Valid 252307Z - 260030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes and very large hail up to 4" in diameter continues across northwest Oklahoma and south-Central KS. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown several splitting supercells over the past hour or so, with the right-moving supercell over Comanche County KS appearing to be the strongest at this time. Recent VAD profile from KVNX has shown a notable increase in low-level shear, with the most recent scans sampling over 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Organized structure of this storm coupled with ample downstream shear and buoyancy suggests this storm will likely maintain its intensity for at least the next hour. Consequently, there is likely a corridor of greater tornado potential for the next hour or two. Very large hail will also remain possible with the left-split moving across Edwards County. The storm farther south in Woodward County also has a favorable environment downstream, but potential interactions with the supercell moving northward across Blaine and Kingfisher casts some doubt regarding its evolution. Even with this uncertainty, the strength of the vertical shear suggest that eventual re-organization is likely even if negative interference is realized. As with the northern storms, very large hail will remain possible with any left-splits, including the one currently moving in northern Woodward and eastern Harper Counties. ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37699973 38179930 38019787 37559742 36229772 35939936 36669968 37699973 |
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