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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 958

Mesoscale Discussion 958
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0958
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest OK...South-Central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...

   Valid 252307Z - 260030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes and very large hail up to 4" in
   diameter continues across northwest Oklahoma and south-Central KS.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown several splitting
   supercells over the past hour or so, with the right-moving supercell
   over Comanche County KS appearing to be the strongest at this time.
   Recent VAD profile from KVNX has shown a notable increase in
   low-level shear, with the most recent scans sampling over 200 m2/s2
   of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Organized structure of this storm
   coupled with ample downstream shear and buoyancy suggests this storm
   will likely maintain its intensity for at least the next hour.
   Consequently, there is likely a corridor of greater tornado
   potential for the next hour or two. Very large hail will also remain
   possible with the left-split moving across Edwards County.  

   The storm farther south in Woodward County also has a favorable
   environment downstream, but potential interactions with the
   supercell moving northward across Blaine and Kingfisher casts some
   doubt regarding its evolution. Even with this uncertainty, the
   strength of the vertical shear suggest that eventual re-organization
   is likely even if negative interference is realized. As with the
   northern storms, very large hail will remain possible with any
   left-splits, including the one currently moving in northern Woodward
   and eastern Harper Counties.

   ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37699973 38179930 38019787 37559742 36229772 35939936
               36669968 37699973 

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