Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 956

   Mesoscale Discussion 0956
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas into Nebraska and far northeast
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 252141Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across Nebraska and far northeast Colorado
   will gradually intensify through early evening with an increase in
   storm coverage expected across northwest Kansas in the coming hours.
   One or more watches will likely be needed for these regions to
   address these concerns given a destabilizing convective environment.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, initially high-based convection
   developing across the central High Plains has intensified to severe
   limits with a 1.0 inch hailstone recently reported out of northeast
   CO. Despite marginal moisture return thus far (dewpoints in the
   upper 40s to low 50s), cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE
   values upwards of 1000 J/kg downstream across much of NE. Continued
   northward moisture advection through early evening will steadily
   improve buoyancy, which should result in a gradual intensification
   of ongoing convection as it moves east. Initially discrete cells
   should see some degree of upscale growth given dry low-level
   conditions that will promote cold pool expansion over the next
   couple of hours. Strong mid-level flow sampled by regional VWPs
   should promote storm organization into one or more linear segments
   with an increasing severe wind threat. 

   To the south across northwest KS and far eastern CO, GOES visible
   imagery shows steady vertical development within a broad cumulus
   field in the vicinity of the deepening surface low. While some MLCIN
   remains in place, continued low-level moistening/heating combined
   with steady mesoscale ascent near the low should promote
   thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours. 50-knot
   deep-layer shear should promote initially discrete cells with an
   attendant risk for large hail (possibly up to 2.0 inches in
   diameter). Trends will be monitored for both regions, and one or
   more watches will likely be needed in the coming 1-2 hours.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38780127 39000160 40010235 40300288 40440328 40560364
               40820393 41250398 41950372 42630297 42810241 42960151
               42970032 42839922 42419851 41959816 41329796 40219803
               39649848 39259895 38730044 38670098 38780127