Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 95

   Mesoscale Discussion 0095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0416 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

   Areas affected...MN North Shore to far northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 181016Z - 181445Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow bands will increase in coverage
   through late morning along portions of the Minnesota North Shore to
   far northern Lower Michigan. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour should
   be common, with localized blizzard conditions along east-facing lake
   shores.

   DISCUSSION...Leading swath of moderate to heavy snow has been most
   persistent across the MN North Shore to the Keweenaw Peninsula of
   western Upper MI. An upstream lobe of strongly forced ascent from
   east-central MN to southeast WI will shift northeast through late
   morning. While the activity attendant to this ascent is largely
   rain, including a flurry of recent thunderstorms in southern WI, it
   will transition to winter precipitation types as it spreads across
   the Upper Great Lakes. Snowfall rates will likely be enhanced with
   transient bursts of 2 to 3 in/hr possible along the interface of
   sleet/freezing rain to all snow transition. Where this transition
   point occurs is more uncertain with southeast extent in MI, where
   subtle differences in the low-level thermal profile should have
   profound impact on the degree of mixed-phase precip versus nearly
   all snow. 

   Localized blizzard conditions along east-facing lake shores should
   persist into late morning, before eventually waning as the surface
   pressure gradient relaxes towards midday.

   ..Grams.. 02/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46929247 47719142 48179074 48248860 46528424 45688315
               45118344 44958470 45698575 46038682 46548878 46629214
               46929247