Mesoscale Discussion 0949 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...extreme southwest Nebraska...much of western Kansas...and portions of northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265... Valid 020053Z - 020300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a history of strong winds and large hail continue across western Kansas this evening. The overall environment ahead of these storms remains very favorable for severe weather. As such, the severe threat will continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #265 and a new watch may be needed across portions of northwest Oklahoma and southwest/south-central Kansas later this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of thunderstorms are ongoing across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #265. The northern most severe storm is an isolated cell moving east along the Thomas/Logan County line. Although MRMS depicts maximum hail sizes between 1-1.5", a recent report from an EM in Logan County reports copious amounts of 0.88" hail rather than fewer, larger stones. To the southeast of this cell, an evolving linear cluster has taken shape from Lane to Gray Counties, with a southeast moving supercell occurring ahead of this line. A measured 80 MPH wind gust occurred earlier this evening over Lane County with the leading supercell, and a more recent report from Ness county indicates 1.75" hail is now or recently occurred. With the linear segment, a measured 61 MPH wind gust occurred as the linear moved across Scott County and a 70 MPH wind gust reported by the Garden City ASOS. Additional severe storms have developed across far southwest Kansas across Morton and Grant Counties. MESH cores with the Morton cell continue to increase and wind damage was recorded in Johnson, KS as the Grant County cell moved through Stanton County. The overall environment ahead of these clusters remains very favorable for severe thunderstorms. MUCAPE increases from around 2000 J/kg where the storms are now, to greater than 3500 J/kg across northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas. Effective-layer shear is also quite favorable, with widespread 35-40 knots objectively analyzed across the region. This should sustain ongoing convection and support severe potential with any new development. Recent observations and high-resolution guidance suggests that the development linear MCS across Lane-to-Gray Counties will continue to develop south-southeast this evening. As mentioned, the overall environment ahead of these storms remains very favorable for large hail and damaging winds. As such, a new watch may be needed later this evening across portions of northwest Oklahoma and southwest/south-central Kansas. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37140199 39330198 39690106 39449949 38399843 36529793 35769833 36049973 37140199 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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