Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 949

   Mesoscale Discussion 0949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251603Z - 251730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust
   cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border
   area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an
   increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being
   monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps
   transient supercells has recently become established in east-central
   AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this
   afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e.
   MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is
   also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable
   buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally
   severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to
   Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.
   Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367
               30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620