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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 945

Mesoscale Discussion 945
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0945
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...Far Northwest
   Louisiana...Northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...305...

   Valid 250202Z - 250400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303, 305

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across the Ark-La-Tex is expected to
   continue for several more hours. Large hail and wind damage will be
   the primary threats, although the strongest of cells could also have
   an isolated tornado threat.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large MCS, with
   scattered severe storms, located from northeast Texas extending
   northward into eastern Oklahoma and northeastward into southwest
   Arkansas. The airmass across much of the Ark-La-Tex is strongly
   unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to
   4000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings this evening across
   much of the unstable airmass have moderate deep-layer shear, with
   700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. The environment
   will continue to support supercells with large hail and wind damage.
   A wind-damage threat will also be likely with the more intense short
   line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue into the
   late evening, but should become more widely scattered as instability
   begins to decrease across the region.

   ..Broyles.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32689284 33359151 33809103 34209091 34699138 34969203
               35409304 35679373 35689430 35229465 34759474 34009469
               33499495 32749621 32279666 31859659 31629632 31679559
               32179414 32689284 

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