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Mesoscale Discussion 945 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0945 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...305... Valid 250202Z - 250400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303, 305 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat across the Ark-La-Tex is expected to continue for several more hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although the strongest of cells could also have an isolated tornado threat. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large MCS, with scattered severe storms, located from northeast Texas extending northward into eastern Oklahoma and northeastward into southwest Arkansas. The airmass across much of the Ark-La-Tex is strongly unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings this evening across much of the unstable airmass have moderate deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. The environment will continue to support supercells with large hail and wind damage. A wind-damage threat will also be likely with the more intense short line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue into the late evening, but should become more widely scattered as instability begins to decrease across the region. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32689284 33359151 33809103 34209091 34699138 34969203 35409304 35679373 35689430 35229465 34759474 34009469 33499495 32749621 32279666 31859659 31629632 31679559 32179414 32689284 |
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