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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 942

Mesoscale Discussion 942
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0942
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

   Valid 250003Z - 250200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across southwest Missouri may be
   maximized over the next couple of hours. The primary threats remain
   large hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Despite numerous early attempts at convective
   initiation, only a few robust convective cells have been sustained
   over the past hour or so across southwest MO. This may be attributed
   to a gradually slowing frontal motion (and thus weakening forcing
   for ascent) across the region as stronger synoptic lift glances the
   region to the north. Regardless, MRMS and GOES IR imagery show a
   couple of robust supercells have become established and may persist
   for the next 1-2 hours as they migrate across an MLCAPE buoyancy
   axis. The KSGF VWP has recently sampled realtively weak (20 knots or
   less) winds in the 0-2 km layer with stronger (~40 knot) winds
   between 5-6 km. Consequently, regional hodographs appear to be
   sufficiently elongated to continue to support supercells, and should
   remain so through mid/late evening. Large hail (possibly up to 2
   inches in diameter) and damaging winds remain the most probable
   hazards given the poor low-level hodograph structure. It remains
   unclear how long cells will persist into south-central MO later this
   evening, and additional storms appear possible based on recent
   visible imagery trends along the front (though perhaps not probable
   given the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling). Regardless, the
   severe threat should be focused to two to three cells heading into
   the late evening.

   ..Moore.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36669301 36629362 36669400 36779417 37009430 37109421
               37409379 37829330 38059279 38119244 38059218 37809196
               37419194 37039217 36809254 36669301 

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