Mesoscale Discussion 0942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle southward toward
the US-Mexico Border
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012154Z - 020000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop along the
dryline from western Oklahoma panhandle south toward Mexico. The
main severe threat should be strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows.
DISCUSSION...A surface dryline exists across far western portions of
the Oklahoma Panhandle south to the US-Mexico border. To the east of
the dryline surface dewpoints are generally in the 50F range,
although some observations have recently mixed into the upper 40Fs,
with dewpoints to the west in the 30Fs to low 40Fs range.
Surface convergence along this boundary is not overly strong with
winds on either side of the boundary generally having a southerly
component to them. That said, loops of recent water vapor imagery
shows a belt of large-scale ascent moving east out of the
Southwest/southern Rockies and overspreading the dryline. In turn,
latest visible imagery shows the cumulus field along the dryline
becoming a bit more agitated, with increased vertical development.
in response to the large-scale ascent, with increasing mid-level
echoes now depicted on radar across portions of the northwest Texas
Panhandle and far western Oklahoma panhandle. Additional
thunderstorms have developed farther east across the Texas panhandle
in an area of better surface moisture, likely the result of strong
boundary layer circulations and local terrain effects owing to the
caprock. Lastly, marginally severe thunderstorms have also developed
in far southwest Texas.
The thermodynamic environment all along the dryline is sufficient
for thunderstorms, with MUCAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg along
the dryline to early 3000 J/kg farther east. Kinematically speaking,
however, deep-layer shear is rather anemic, with generally less than
20-25 knots analyzed. Given the degree of instability, continued
vertical mixing associated with deepening boundary layer
circulations will likely support additional thunderstorm development
along the dryline. The lack of deep-layer shear should limit the
overall organization of the storms, favoring pulse-type cellular
convection, but a few multi-cell clusters may also evolve. Given the
deepening boundary layer, this cells will likely be high-based, with
increasingly dry sub-cloud layers (especially across western
portions of the highlighted area) with a tendency to produce strong,
cold outflows capable of isolated damage.
The isolated nature of the severe threat should preclude the need
for a watch, but the region will be monitored for any areas where
thunderstorm organization might occur.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 29420425 34340367 36480312 36940296 36950181 36969996
36659972 36149944 35389955 34839970 34350024 30980217
29660262 29130278 28940305 28900317 29150393 29420425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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