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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 935

Mesoscale Discussion 935
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0935
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...central and northern IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242019Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk for localized wind damage via 50-65 mph gusts may
   develop across north-central and northern IN during the next few
   hours.  The expected severe coverage will likely preclude the need
   for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a warm and adequately moist
   boundary layer is located over Indiana featuring lower 80s
   temperatures and 60-64 deg F dewpoints.  This airmass is immediately
   east of a residual gust front/outflow from an earlier MCS that has
   progressed eastward and extends from southwestern Lower MI
   south-southwestward into east-central IL.  The WSR-88D VAD data from
   Syracuse, IN and Indianapolis, IN show relatively weak flow (less
   than 20 kt) in the lowest 4-5 km.  Given the moderate instability
   but deep-layer shear favoring mainly linear modes/multicells,
   expecting a continuation of episodic intensification and weakening
   to the more intense multicells over the next few hours across
   central and northern IN.  Although marginally severe hail cannot be
   ruled out, it seems the greater hazard will be localized gusts
   perhaps peaking in the 50-65 mph range.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40188717 41498621 41688587 41668548 41368517 39908582
               39718606 39618653 39818695 40188717 

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