Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 930

   Mesoscale Discussion 0930
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas through central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

   Valid 010654Z - 010900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail continues in
   stronger thunderstorm development, which may increasingly become
   focused near the I-70 corridor of western into central Missouri
   through 3-4 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms are embedded within modest (20-25+ kt),
   broadly anticyclonic westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow, with
   increasing inhibition probably becoming a more substantive factor
   concerning storm intensities and organization.  Inhibition has been
   increasing with continued slow boundary-layer cooling, and latest
   Rapid Refresh suggests this may be aided further over the next few
   hours by mid-layer warming and height rises, particularly across
   southeastern Kansas through southwestern Missouri.

   Convective evolution through daybreak remains unclear.  However, a
   narrow southwesterly low-level jet, on the order of 20-30 kt below
   1.5 km AGL, gradually veering with time may focus strongest
   low-level warm advection across the Lake of the Ozarks vicinity into
   areas west of Columbia through 08-09Z.  As this occurs, this may
   shift the primary corridor of stronger and upscale growing
   convective development roughly along I-70.

   ..Kerr.. 06/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38949481 39669384 39469168 38709104 37989232 37539346
               37739578 38439503 38949481 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN