Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 928

   Mesoscale Discussion 0928
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241656Z - 241800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe hail or wind may accompany the stronger storms
   that may try to become established over central and northern AR this
   afternoon. A WW issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity across
   west-central AR over the past couple of hours, with at least one
   report of 0.75 inch hail received. While earlier storms had
   overturned the airmass, ample insolation and low-level warm-air
   advection is supporting rapid modification of the boundary layer.
   RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis show 7-8 C/km mid-level
   lapse rates quickly ushering into AR from the west, which will
   further boost instability. Surface temperatures in the low 80s amid
   70+ F dewpoints should yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40-50 kts of
   effective bulk shear (characterized by elongated hodographs with
   modest low-level curvature). Multicells and perhaps a few supercell
   structures are possible this afternoon, with severe hail and wind
   gusts the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled
   out. A WW issuance may be needed pending convective trends.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35539370 35889322 36129286 36099216 35869152 35189117
               34279096 33869112 33519150 33469181 33789281 34369369
               34839408 34979410 35539370