Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 010012Z - 010245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should develop this evening
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms will be
capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado
cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete storms. A watch will
likely be needed at some point this evening.
DISCUSSION...A diffuse outflow boundary is draped from
McPherson/Saline Counties in Kansas east to St. Clair/Henry Counties
in west-central Missouri and then southeast from there toward the
ongoing convection across northeast Arkansas and northwest
Tennessee. Extending south/southwest from this boundary is a
dryline/wind shift which extends Chase/Marion Counties, KS, through
Sedgewick County, KS, into north-central Oklahoma.
Extreme instability has developed along and south of this outflow
boundary, and to the east of the dryline/wind shift this afternoon.
MLCAPE values in excess of 4500 J/kg are in place across southeast
Kansas to the south of the outflow boundary, with 2500-3000 J/kg
across far northeast Kansas to its north. Objective analyses
indicates midlevel flow on the order of 35-40 knots across much of
Kansas, which when combined with southerly to easterly low-level
winds results in 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear.
Recent satellite imagery across Kansas has shown an increase in
vertical development with the cumulus fields along the dryline/wind
shift across Sedgewick County. Recent radar depictions suggest
initiation is underway, with lightning now observed. Additional
clustering/clumping of the cumulus field is also occuring to the
northeast of Sedgewick County, across Butler County. The expectation
is that one or both of these areas will develop into sustained
thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk of very large
hail and strong/gusty thunderstorm outflows. These storms should
move north-northeast, with additional thunderstorm development
possible on the outflow of these storms.
Recent high-resolution model guidance shows the potential for
additional thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary
across east-central Kansas or west-central Missouri later this
evening. Should this activity develop, very large hail and damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible.
Although low-level flow is relative weak, extreme instability in the
presence of an outflow boundary may support an isolated tornado
threat, particularly with any discrete storm that can sustain
itself.
A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening across
portions of the highlighted area, although the exact timing and
location of a watch remains somewhat uncertain. The area will be
monitored closely.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37089753 37659751 38609706 39239655 39629573 39689466
39479427 39139399 38579394 38129420 37539472 37059552
37089753
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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