US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 923

   Mesoscale Discussion 0923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Nebraska and north-central
   Kansas...eastward to western Iowa and northwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

   Valid 240615Z - 240815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297

   SUMMARY...A line of strong storms continues moving eastward across
   eastern Nebraska and north-central Kansas, where severe risk --
   primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts -- continues.  New
   storms developing east of the convective line bear watching.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-organized line of
   convection advancing steadily eastward across eastern Nebraska and
   adjacent northern Kansas.  While occasional mesoscale circulations
   within the line imply brief tornado potential, the main risk with
   this convection remains damaging winds.  Storms are nearing the
   southeastern portion of the WW, which will likely prompt new WW
   issuance eastward toward/across the Middle Missouri Valley.

   In addition, warm-advection-driven convective development is
   occurring, from northwestern Iowa southward to northwestern
   Missouri.  It remains unclear as to what degree this developing
   convection will pose severe risk, given a weakly stable boundary
   layer, and associated/elevated nature of the convection.  At this
   time, isolated hail appears to be the primary risk, but given the
   current trends with respect to the increasing coverage of storms, we
   will continue to monitor for potential necessity for WW issuance
   well ahead of the Nebraska storms.

   ..Goss.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39569891 40319823 41709781 42549707 42999631 42879466
               41979371 40549287 39539314 39329503 39569891 

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