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Mesoscale Discussion 920 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Oklahoma and north central Texas near the Red River Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240235Z - 240400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of north central TX and far southern/southeastern OK near the Red River through late tonight. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an area of ascent slowly lifting northeastward out of north central TX. This ascent is located near the nose of deeper theta-e advection via a LLJ, on the southern fringe of a residual cold pool, and is likely associated with isentropic ascent. RAP forecast soundings over the next few hours suggest the developing convective environment will support storm organization, with effective shear around 50 kt. These thunderstorms should remain relatively elevated, rooted around 850 mb or so, and MUCAPE is expected to be around 3500 J/kg. Isolated large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter may accompany any of the more discrete updrafts that manage to develop through late tonight. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32919643 32949703 33059740 33509759 34229724 34259688 34439664 34499596 34249554 33929528 33399532 32989568 32919643 |
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