Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 914

   Mesoscale Discussion 0914
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Areas affected...Central Kansas into south-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

   Valid 310029Z - 310230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across
   portions of central Kansas and south-central Nebraska, including
   behind the primary band of thunderstorms where new convection is
   developing along outflow boundaries. Trends are being monitored for
   the need for downstream watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Several severe wind reports have been noted over the
   past two hours across central KS as two predominant bands/clusters
   of thunderstorms have emerged and spread northeast. These clusters
   currently reside within the axis of higher MLCAPE and should be
   migrating towards a region of lower buoyancy across eastern NE and
   far eastern KS (as depicted by the recent 00z TOP RAOB that sampled
   around 1800 J/kg MLCAPE along with nearly -120 J/kg MLCIN). However,
   the presence of established cold pools with both clusters, combined
   with the coming onset of the nocturnal jet, may promote a continued
   severe wind threat downstream across southeast NE and parts of
   eastern Kansas through late evening. Convective trends will continue
   to be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance. 

   Further southwest across south-central KS, convection continues to
   develop along the outflow boundaries associated with the initial
   thunderstorm clusters. Although storm motions will be towards the
   convectively overturned/cold pool air, convective intensity trends
   in GOES cloud-top temperatures and MRMS VIL suggest that pockets of
   sufficient buoyancy remain in place for at least a localized hail
   and wind threat over the next couple of hours - especially as
   isentropic upglide over the cold pools increases with the onset of
   the nocturnal jet.

   ..Moore.. 05/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37179753 37069803 37129860 37429911 37989955 38339974
               38669961 38919940 39139923 39449915 39799921 40109953
               40309969 40519969 40739942 40889905 40959860 40909822
               40839787 40679762 39219652 38879634 38379624 38109634
               37889654 37179753 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN