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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 914

Mesoscale Discussion 914
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0914
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Areas affected...Western Nebraska into central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 231953Z - 232200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for
   parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail
   will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a
   more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to increase along a surface
   trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South
   Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in
   western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture
   continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into
   western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are
   noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective
   mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems
   probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells
   capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively
   quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the
   surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this
   transition occurs.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067
               44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140 

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