Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 914

   Mesoscale Discussion 0914
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Areas affected...Western Nebraska into central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 231953Z - 232200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for
   parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail
   will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a
   more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to increase along a surface
   trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South
   Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in
   western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture
   continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into
   western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are
   noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective
   mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems
   probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells
   capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively
   quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the
   surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this
   transition occurs.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067
               44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140