Mesoscale Discussion 0909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 302158Z - 310000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat will likely increase across central Kansas over the next few hours as thunderstorms migrate into a corridor of extreme buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of multicells and embedded supercells have emerged south of Hays, KS and to the west of the Wichita, KS area. Regional velocity imagery shows the early development of mid-level mesocyclones with a few of these cells, hinting that deep-layer shear is likely adequate to support supercells. Nearby VWP observations from KICT have sampled 0-6 km BWD values near 35 knots, which is stronger than estimated by recent RAP mesoanalyses. Additionally, these VWP observations are depicting 0-3 km SRH on the order of 300 m2/s2 to the north of a subtle outflow boundary, which will further support the potential for supercells, and perhaps a locally higher tornado threat, over the next few hours as convection begins to interact with this boundary. Similarly, a subtle outflow boundary is noted further north downstream of the cluster near Hays, KS. Enhanced low-level vorticity in proximity and north of this boundary may promote better storm organization and a localized tornado threat. However, any tornado potential will be conditional on maintaining at least semi-discrete storm modes. Based on recent radar trends, it remains to be seen whether these clusters will become primarily outflow dominant - which will likely diminish the tornado potential. Whether or not convection will become outflow dominant should become apparent over the next hour or so. Regardless, both clusters are migrating into the regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE values are estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. This will promote further intensification of ongoing convection, especially the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Moore.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 36939821 37429845 37699867 37819892 38129945 38439978 38789993 39089994 39379978 39589943 39679904 39649862 39589845 39369800 39059769 38769751 38319728 37939720 37539711 37249714 36929733 36829753 36799778 36819803 36939821 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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