Mesoscale Discussion 0906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...south-central and southeastern Oklahoma...and into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230707Z - 230900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms will likely persist over the next few hours. Hail in the 1" to 1.75" range, and possibly a strong/damaging gust or two, will be possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradually expanding cluster of storms over south-central Oklahoma. The storms are not well-depicted by any recent CAM runs, but are occurring in tandem with a weak cyclonic mid-level circulation evident in water vapor imagery, and near the nose of an associated 40 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting QG forcing, co-located with an axis of 1500 to 2000 J/kg slightly elevated CAPE, should allow continuance of the ongoing storms, and possibly a minor increase in storm coverage. Latest area VWP data shows weakly veering flow through the cloud-bearing layer (roughly 850mb to 150 mb), that increases with height -- particularly at mid to upper levels. The resulting effective-layer (LCL to mid-cloud depth) supports potential for organized/rotating storms. With storms slightly elevated atop a modestly stable layer, primary risk should remain large hail, though a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out. Overall, with risk expected to remain isolated to a couple of the strongest storms, current expectations are that wW issuance should remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34389803 34829789 35359650 35959465 35749371 35019372 34669365 34169318 33539344 33759562 34389803