Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Areas affected...south-central and southeastern Oklahoma...and into
western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230707Z - 230900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms will likely persist
over the next few hours. Hail in the 1" to 1.75" range, and
possibly a strong/damaging gust or two, will be possible with the
strongest storms.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradually expanding cluster
of storms over south-central Oklahoma. The storms are not
well-depicted by any recent CAM runs, but are occurring in tandem
with a weak cyclonic mid-level circulation evident in water vapor
imagery, and near the nose of an associated 40 kt southerly
low-level jet. The resulting QG forcing, co-located with an axis of
1500 to 2000 J/kg slightly elevated CAPE, should allow continuance
of the ongoing storms, and possibly a minor increase in storm
coverage.
Latest area VWP data shows weakly veering flow through the
cloud-bearing layer (roughly 850mb to 150 mb), that increases with
height -- particularly at mid to upper levels. The resulting
effective-layer (LCL to mid-cloud depth) supports potential for
organized/rotating storms. With storms slightly elevated atop a
modestly stable layer, primary risk should remain large hail, though
a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out. Overall, with risk
expected to remain isolated to a couple of the strongest storms,
current expectations are that wW issuance should remain unnecessary.
..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34389803 34829789 35359650 35959465 35749371 35019372
34669365 34169318 33539344 33759562 34389803