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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 905

Mesoscale Discussion 905
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0905
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...East Texas...Northern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

   Valid 230158Z - 230400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290

   SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will
   likely continue through late evening from east Texas into northern

   DISCUSSION...A large MCS is currently ongoing from east Texas into
   northern Louisiana and far southern Arkansas. The MCS is located
   within a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE
   in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across much of the Sabine River
   Valley. In addition, the RAP shows a belt of strong mid-level flow
   from north Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi
   Valley. This stronger flow is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at
   Fort Polk, LA, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. RAP forecast
   soundings nearby have steep mid-level lapse rates with veering winds
   from the surface to near 700 mb. This should continue to support a
   severe threat with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. Wind
   damage will be the greatest threat, although isolated large hail
   will also be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31259274 31879204 32299178 32689177 32929196 33099223
               33089264 32959287 32589335 32189417 31949512 31699551
               31179562 30809543 30769452 30959356 31259274 

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