Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 904

   Mesoscale Discussion 0904
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0724 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest
   Arkansas...Northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

   Valid 230024Z - 230230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and large hail will likely
   continue for a few more hours across parts of the Ark-La-Tex.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
   from northeast Texas eastward into southwestern Arkansas and
   northern Louisiana. These storms are located on the northern edge of
   a strongly unstable airmass. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex
   from the RAP have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This should support
   supercell development, with a potential for large hail and wind
   damage. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the more
   intense line segments. This threat is expected to persist for a few
   more hours, but could become more isolated as instability begins to
   decrease across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32049272 31949360 32099432 32459514 32979583 33329590
               33549544 33499375 33399275 33139231 32669224 32049272