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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 904

Mesoscale Discussion 904
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0904
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0724 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest
   Arkansas...Northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

   Valid 230024Z - 230230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290

   SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and large hail will likely
   continue for a few more hours across parts of the Ark-La-Tex.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
   from northeast Texas eastward into southwestern Arkansas and
   northern Louisiana. These storms are located on the northern edge of
   a strongly unstable airmass. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex
   from the RAP have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This should support
   supercell development, with a potential for large hail and wind
   damage. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the more
   intense line segments. This threat is expected to persist for a few
   more hours, but could become more isolated as instability begins to
   decrease across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32049272 31949360 32099432 32459514 32979583 33329590
               33549544 33499375 33399275 33139231 32669224 32049272 

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