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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 903

Mesoscale Discussion 903
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern and western Kentucky...far
   southeastern Indiana...and southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222338Z - 230100Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms extending southwest to northeast
   along a cold front/surface trough have rapidly developed early this
   evening, with a couple of more robust updrafts noted near the KY/IN
   border. A few supercells will be possible over the next 3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Enhanced surface convergence along a cold front near
   the KY/IN border has led to the development of a line of
   thunderstorms. An instability axis is noted along and ahead of this
   zone, where MLCAPE is around 2000 J/kg. Localized deep layer shear
   is sufficient for some storm organization, and a few embedded
   supercells will be possible through at least sunset. Waning
   instability through the evening, and a linear mode, should keep the
   severe hail threat localized. A severe damaging wind threat may
   accompany larger clusters or a bowing segment or two. Convective
   trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

   ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37798657 37928660 38118653 38358624 38618587 38838564
               38988544 39288521 40318408 40258361 39428355 39078382
               38788396 38428418 37888470 37668524 37648584 37798657 

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