Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 899

   Mesoscale Discussion 0899
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Southern Arkansas...Far Northern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 222147Z - 222345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours
   from northeast Texas eastward into southern Arkansas and far
   northern Louisiana. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a tornado or two
   will be possible. A new watch is being issued for parts of the
   Ark-La-Tex.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows
   scattered strong to severe storms from northeast Texas into
   southwestern Arkansas, with a couple supercells ongoing. The storms
   are located near an axis of strong to extreme instability, where the
   RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition,
   the Little Rock and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the
   50 to 60 knot range. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex have
   700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This enviroment
   will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the
   strongest of updrafts. Wind damage will be likely with supercells
   and the more intense line segments. Low-level shear will also be
   sufficient for a tornado or two.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   34069276 34149188 34039140 33739123 33309123 32979137
               32739165 32639220 32619362 32759526 33109554 33489516
               33689460 33869389 34069276