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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 899

Mesoscale Discussion 899
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0899
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Southern Arkansas...Far Northern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 222147Z - 222345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours
   from northeast Texas eastward into southern Arkansas and far
   northern Louisiana. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a tornado or two
   will be possible. A new watch is being issued for parts of the

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows
   scattered strong to severe storms from northeast Texas into
   southwestern Arkansas, with a couple supercells ongoing. The storms
   are located near an axis of strong to extreme instability, where the
   RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition,
   the Little Rock and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the
   50 to 60 knot range. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex have
   700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This enviroment
   will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the
   strongest of updrafts. Wind damage will be likely with supercells
   and the more intense line segments. Low-level shear will also be
   sufficient for a tornado or two.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34069276 34149188 34039140 33739123 33309123 32979137
               32739165 32639220 32619362 32759526 33109554 33489516
               33689460 33869389 34069276 

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