Mesoscale Discussion 0899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into the Big Bend Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251... Valid 300028Z - 300130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences severe wind gusts and/or large hail remain possible across the watch area this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 00:25 UTC, mosaic radar indicated a cluster of storms southeast of Amarillo with a more isolated storm in the southeast Panhandle, northeast of Childress. The glancing influence of a short-wave trough moving into southwest KS and northwest OK may be aiding in this development amidst a steep lapse rate environment, per the 00z AMA sounding. The kinematic environment remains favorable for storm organization given relatively strong mid/upper-level winds, with recent reports of a 70 mph wind gust near Memphis, and wind damage along with golf-ball size hail south of Amarillo. Decreased forcing for ascent with time is expected to keep storms fairly isolated with a continued risk for large hail and/or severe wind gusts for the next couple of hours. Farther south, more recent thunderstorm development is underway east of Fort Stockton, within the western edge of an increasingly moist and unstable air mass with eastward extent. Here too, forcing for ascent remains negligible with an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat spreading east across the Pecos River. Between these two convective regimes, storm initiation remains in question. Should it become apparent that storms will not develop, that portion of the watch may be cancelled early. ..Mead.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 30750356 31560290 33050255 34780245 35610217 35640002 32950001 31660024 31080072 30260096 30240180 29770174 29780234 30750356 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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