Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 897

   Mesoscale Discussion 0897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0557 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

   Areas affected...south-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292257Z - 300030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds
   and/or large hail may increase this evening with storms moving into
   the area from northern Oklahoma. Areal coverage is expected to
   remain too limited for a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms ongoing across
   portions of north-central and northwest OK being driven north by
   convective outflow with a subset of that activity likely moving into
   portions of south-central KS within the next 30-60 minutes.
   Objective analysis suggests that the air mass across the discussion
   area is moderate to strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
   However, comparison of the KVNX and KICT VWPs indicates that already
   marginal deep-layer shear in place across northern OK decreases
   within northward extent into southern KS. So while the thermodynamic
   environment will support the potential for locally severe wind gusts
   and perhaps marginally severe hail across the discussion area, the
   weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more
   robust severe-weather threat.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 05/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36999874 37019746 37009637 37189616 37479610 37649642
               37689679 37679744 37599802 37569834 37369870 36999874 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN