Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 897

   Mesoscale Discussion 0897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast
   TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...287...

   Valid 222038Z - 222215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286, 287 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail from 2-3" remains the primary risk from
   southwest Texas across central Texas into northeast Texas. A few
   tornadoes are possible as well, particularly across southwest Texas.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues over Coleman County
   Texas. This storm is the most substantial development within the
   very unstable and strongly sheared airmass extending from southwest
   TX across central TX into northeast TX. Additional development near
   the surface low in the Permian Basin has recently intensified,
   acquiring supercellular characteristics as it moved into Sterling
   County TX. This storm may begin to interact with outflow from the
   Coleman County storm, resulting in some potential for additional
   strengthening. Vertical vorticity along this boundary could aid in
   tornadogenesis.

   Robust updrafts capable of very large hail up to 2-3" remain
   possible. The large anvil cast by the Coleman County storm could
   have some influence on where this additional initiation occurs,
   perhaps shifting the more favorable initiation zone to the edges of
   the anvil where differential heating is more likely. Large hail
   remains possible with left splits over northwest TX, with at least
   some potential for in-situ development along the cold front as well.

   ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32190117 33069910 33349803 33739637 32959514 31349718
               30910140 32190117