Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 893

   Mesoscale Discussion 0893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Far Northeast AR...Western/Middle TN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

   Valid 221834Z - 222000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A transition to a more linear mode may be underway across
   far northeast Arkansas, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
   severe hazard across western/middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms across far northeast AR
   have undergone notable intensification and organization over the
   past hour, with some trends suggesting an organized MCS may be
   evolving. Recent surface observation at JBR sampled a 61 kt gust
   when the relatively small supercell moved over. This cell has
   continued eastward, maintaining a strong velocity signature while
   also trending towards a more forward-propagating structure. The cell
   to the west of NQA currently has a similar velocity signature, while
   also increasing its forward propagation as well. These trends,
   coupled with strengthening westerly flow aloft, appear to favor a
   transition to a more linear mode, perhaps relatively soon. This
   would also signal shift in the primary hazard from hail to damaging
   gusts.

   ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35719085 36298980 36538863 36648778 36378736 35698761
               34948904 34579098 35719085