Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 889

   Mesoscale Discussion 0889
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221449Z - 221645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm risk is expected to continue for the
   next several hour from northwest Arkansas into south-central and
   southeast Oklahoma. Hail up to 2.5" in diameter is the primary risk,
   with damaging gusts and a tornado or two also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a three well-developed
   supercells along a cold front extending southwestward from northwest
   AR through south-central OK. Each of one of these supercells has
   shown an intensifying trend over the past hour. The northernmost and
   southernmost cells both appear to be behind the boundary, although
   the southernmost cell has recently shown a eastward surge that might
   indicate a trend towards a more surface-based character. This
   eastward surge was already noted in the central supercell moving
   into Haskell, Latimer, and Pittsburg Counties. Given the organized
   character of these storms, anticipated downstream destabilization,
   and persistent strong deep-layer vertical shear, the severe threat
   with these storms will likely continue through the remainder of the
   morning into the early afternoon. Primary severe risk is expected to
   be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. Damaging gusts
   are also possible, particularly if the storms trend towards a linear
   mode. Given the presence of supercells, a tornado or two is also
   possible.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34489693 35479472 36189316 35989207 34939237 33969310
               33779390 33939546 34039686 34489693