Mesoscale Discussion 0887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri southward across central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220815Z - 221015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated/occasionally strong storms expected to continue over the next few hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the risk may preclude the need for serious WW consideration. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a vigorous storm which has evolved not far from Hot Springs/Mountain View Arkansas, within an axis of moderate instability near/ahead of the surface cold front, per RAP-based objective analysis. Farther northeastward within this same CAPE axis, a couple of stronger cells have evolved over southeastern Missouri. While isolated stronger storms will remain possible across this region over the next few hours, large-scale forcing for ascent remains subtle at best. Still, with southwesterly flow aloft increasing gradually with height, shear sufficient for multicell/weak supercell storms is evident, supporting isolated risk for hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range with the strongest updrafts. At this time, the anticipated isolated nature of the risk appears likely to preclude the need for WW issuance. However, we will continue to monitor convective evolution for any signs that coverage may become greater than currently anticipated, which could warrant further consideration. ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV... LAT...LON 34009311 34219399 34639403 35189300 35819235 36809129 37179016 36788963 36189095 35479147 35019116 34639116 34169178 33889244 34009311