Mesoscale Discussion 0886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...east-central Arkansas into northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 283... Valid 220658Z - 220800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 283 continues. SUMMARY...As isolated convection continues to gradually decrease in intensity, new WW is not anticipated downstream of the most vigorous, eastern Arkansas storms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the strongest storm, which earlier exhibited supercell characteristics, continuing to gradually decrease in intensity as it nears eastern fringes of Tornado Watch 283. While a narrow axis of mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg exists immediately along the Mississippi River, CAPE just to the east of the river diminishes rapidly, while at the same time capping increases with eastward extent. Given these factors, convective intensity is expected to continue to gradually diminish. While there are hints in the latest HRRR runs that weak convection developing westward as far west as southeastern Oklahoma could locally/gradually intensify, it appears at this time that risk will be limited/isolated, and thus not requiring WW consideration. As such, the current watch likely to be left to expire at 22/08Z. ..Goss.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34539193 34749154 34959115 34899029 34459013 34009038 34269126 34539193