US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 886

   Mesoscale Discussion 0886
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...east-central Arkansas into northwestern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 283...

   Valid 220658Z - 220800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 283 continues.

   SUMMARY...As isolated convection continues to gradually decrease in
   intensity, new WW is not anticipated downstream of the most
   vigorous, eastern Arkansas storms.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the strongest storm, which
   earlier exhibited supercell characteristics, continuing to gradually
   decrease in intensity as it nears eastern fringes of Tornado Watch
   283.  While a narrow axis of mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg
   exists immediately along the Mississippi River, CAPE just to the
   east of the river diminishes rapidly, while at the same time capping
   increases with eastward extent. 

   Given these factors, convective intensity is expected to continue to
   gradually diminish.  While there are hints in the latest HRRR runs
   that weak convection developing westward as far west as southeastern
   Oklahoma could locally/gradually intensify, it appears at this time
   that risk will be limited/isolated, and thus not requiring WW
   consideration.  As such, the current watch likely to be left to
   expire at 22/08Z.

   ..Goss.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34539193 34749154 34959115 34899029 34459013 34009038
               34269126 34539193 

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