Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and north-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282250Z - 290015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest
storms in a cluster of storms developing across portions of central
and north Texas. A watch is currently not expected, but the area
will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicell thunderstorms is ongoing across
portions of southern North Texas and northern portions of central
Texas. This region is downstream of the western North American
long-wave trough and upstream of the central US short-wave trough.
This places the area just east of the rising heights noted across
the southern Rockies.
The overall large scale environment is very unstable with MUCAPE in
excess of 2500 J/kg and locally greater than 3000 J/kg. Although,
deep layer shear is generally less than 30 knots, but pockets of
25-30 knots will support at least some organization to the strongest
of the multicell cores. Additionally, this region is downstream of
an upper-level subtropical jet on the southwest side of the large
western US trough, which is at minimum resulting in diffluent
upper-level flow and may provide some large-scale ascent.
Individual cells within this larger cluster have produced isolated
large hail around 1-1.5". The current degree of instability will
continue to support this threat with the strongest storms.
Although overall organization of the entire cluster is currently
somewhat limited, the area will be monitored for signs of individual
cell outflows merging together and functioning as a single,
collective outflow. Should this occur, the potential for some
damaging wind may develop as the overall cluster sags
south/southeast this evening.
Generally speaking, the overall severe potential should remain
relatively limited in space and time. As such, a watch is currently
not anticipated, but conditions will be monitored.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32440029 33169987 33409802 33129657 32299629 31769635
31409711 31369853 31839984 32440029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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