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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 881

Mesoscale Discussion 881
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...Central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 212318Z - 220045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging wind threat will increase across
   portions of central WI as a line of thunderstorms, with embedded
   supercells, continues to rapidly move northeastward out of IA
   through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extending from far
   southeastern MN through east central IA, and additional new
   thunderstorm development ahead of it, will continue to move into a
   favorable low-level shear tornadic environment across central WI
   characterized by 50 kt of 0-1 km shear. Although recent visible
   satellite imagery and mesoanalysis indicates this downstream region
   is more convectively inhibited, strong forcing via a mid level
   shortwave trough and cold front will likely overcome it. An initial
   threat of discrete supercells will be possible early this evening,
   with upscale growth into a line expected late tonight. Even so, any
   bowing line segments lifting north-northeastward within it will
   become more favorably oriented with the low-level shear vector
   (orthogonal), presenting an opportunity for embedded mesovortices
   and damaging winds.

   ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44569208 44889238 45129244 45539199 45679140 45679078
               45519020 45298967 44988893 44748815 44718809 44318796
               43808803 43558806 43578855 43648970 43669023 43769067
               43979095 44569122 44569208 

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