Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 876

   Mesoscale Discussion 0876
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central/Central MO...West-Central
   IL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

   Valid 212054Z - 212300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
   severe hazards is increasing and a watch may be needed within the
   next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has recently shown
   increasingly agitated cumulus across north-central MO, ahead of the
   ongoing line of storms moving through northwest MO. This increased
   vertical development has occurred subsequent with the erosion of the
   convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis. Convective initiation
   is possible within this cumulus field, although there is likely
   still a warm layer around 800-700 mb that could inhibit updrafts
   somewhat. If initiation is realized, the environment is favorable
   for storm intensification/organization, with supercells capable of
   all severe hazards possible. Even if this early initiation is not
   realized, the ongoing storms are expected to maintain their
   intensity as they move into northwest MO around 23Z. A downstream
   watch will likely be needed over portions of the region to address
   the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39779339 40459286 40379062 39619032 38989102 38899323
               39779339